CRMI warns of global oil shock after UAE exit from OPEC

The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has raised concerns over emerging geo-economic risks following the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective May 1, 2026.

In a policy advisory issued in Abuja and signed by its Registrar/Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Victor Olannye, Ph.D., the Institute described the development as a “landmark shift” in global oil governance with far-reaching implications for energy markets and economic stability.

According to the CRMI, the UAE’s exit could trigger increased market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions across global energy supply chains, urging stakeholders across both public and private sectors to reassess their risk exposure.

“The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria advises corporate members, public sector institutions, financial institutions, and individual risk professionals to reassess their risk management strategies and strengthen institutional resilience,” Olannye stated.

The Institute outlined several key risks associated with the development, including potential structural weakening of OPEC cohesion, oil price volatility, geopolitical instability, supply chain disruptions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the possibility of other member states considering similar exits.

For Nigeria, CRMI noted a mixed outlook, highlighting potential opportunities such as increased production flexibility, expanded market share, and improved revenue prospects. However, it also warned of significant risks, including exposure to global price fluctuations, reduced supply coordination, heightened competition, and possible fiscal instability.

To mitigate these risks, the Institute issued policy directives to stakeholders. Corporate organisations were advised to strengthen risk management frameworks, adopt dynamic hedging strategies, and diversify investment portfolios. Financial institutions and investors were urged to reassess energy-related exposures, enhance diversification, and improve risk disclosure practices.

For government and policymakers, CRMI recommended strengthening fiscal buffers, accelerating economic diversification efforts, and advancing the transition towards renewable energy sources.

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Individual risk professionals were also encouraged to build capacity in geopolitical risk analysis, energy economics, scenario planning, and predictive analytics to better respond to evolving global dynamics.

The Institute further warned that the global energy landscape may be heading towards fragmentation of traditional oil governance structures, a shift towards more market-driven pricing mechanisms, and an accelerated global energy transition.

CRMI stressed the need for proactive repositioning across all sectors, noting that early adaptation would be critical in navigating what it described as an increasingly uncertain geo-economic environment.